PLANET FOREX

The Euro has actually managed to clear out our yearly target of 1.4500 and has now taken hold of the 1.4600 level and possibly looking for higher prices. Renewed optimism was reinforced by a string of positive Chinese data which showed clear signals of the global economic recovery. However, there still remain worries over the pace of recovery; something that can be seen expressed in the Yen pairs.

The Dollar by itself is under a questionable umbrella having to finance major budget deficits, as well as the skepticism over the quality to continue as the World’s reserve currency. As the recovery continues to gain traction, investors will have no choice but to continue shifting their risk averse portfolios for the search of higher yield. However, as mentioned by many Central Bankers the recovery may be slow and bumpy.

Ahead, the economic calendar will be rather light with no major news announcements. Traders will look at the latest preliminary consumer sentiment reading as well as the import prices data.

Looking at the 4hour chart, EUR/USD rose to an intraday high at 1.4627 where it found supply and encounters strong resistance points. Negative sentiment towards the USD continues to play a big role in the currency markets and the outlook remains bullish for the pair. It’s not a Euro strength story… rather a pessimistic outlook towards the USD.

“A continuation of stabilizing data will lift risk appetite which in turn will keep the pair well supported. China has reiterated once again that it will “absolutely” maintain its stimulative fiscal and monetary policies until a stable economic recovery is achieved.”

The bias in the near term is bullish with preferred strategy is to buy on dips. The bounce off the 1.4504 level suggests their is strong demand near that level where an entry order could be placed.

Initial resistance can be found at 1.4627, followed by stronger levels at 1.4720 and 1.4857. Next strong support comes in at 1.4544, where a break of such would target subsequent levels at 1.4504 followed by 1.4468. Wall street performance will be key in today’s trading.

Trading levels in play:

*Data is canceled if the consumer sentiment reading is below expectations. If so entry order could be moved lower to 1.4468 or 1.4425. Be cautious as Friday’s are known for retracements.

Limit Buy @ 1.4504 Targets: T1 1.4534 – T2 1.4700 Risk: 1.4460
* After 15 pips profit move stop to entry, take profit at will. Trade is canceled if it rebounds near entry and moves higher by 20 pips. Comments will follow if outlook changes.

The Pound continues to strengthen on renewed optimism over the economic recovery as well as gaining support after the BOE announcement did not include an expansion of QE measures. In addition, the GBP/USD is rising further as concerns over the Dollar intensify. Skepticism in the quality of the USD World’s reserve status and concerns in the U.S. having to finance major budget deficits has kept the Dollar under pressure.

Looking at the 4hour chart, GBP/USD spiked above the 1.6700 handle to reach a fresh 1 month high at 1.6740. The bias is bullish in the near term with preferred startegy to buy on dips. Wall Street performance will be monitored and key in the pair’s next move.

Above 1.6700, GBP/USD is encountering strong levels of resistance at the 1.6740 followed by 1.6809 and 1.6908. Initial support can be found at 1.6666, followed by stronger levels at 1.6580 and 1.6500.

Trading levels in play:

Limit Buy @ 1.6558 Targets: T1 1.6595 – T2 1.6835 Risk 1.6498.
* After 20 pips profit move stop to entry, take profit at will. Comments will follow if outlook changes

Previous session overview

The dollar remains under pressure if off earlier intraday lows Friday, after a flurry of strong economic numbers from China overnight gave a further lift to risk appetites.

The latest Chinese data on industrial production, retail sales and lending were all beyond expectations, developments which helped the Shanghai Composite Index to rally 2.0% and the price of gold to rise back to around the USD1,000 per ounce mark.

For foreign exchange, the news also contributed to fresh multi-month U.S. dollar lows against the euro and the yen, although a pre-weekend tendency toward position-squaring has limited the dollar’s losses and enabled it to recover modestly off its weakest levels of the day.

The yen’s gains have come despite some discouraging economic developments in Japan, as the country’s second- quarter GDP growth was downgraded to 0.6% from 0.9%, a factor that helped to ensure that the Nikkei Index lost 0.7% on the day.

Market expectation

EURUSD continues to orbit a narrow range around USD1.4600 area with flows described as light, traders suggest that many want to participate but are either waiting for the dip or waiting for the break. Overnight high area at USD1.4628 still said to hold supply after the push higher was rebuffed, stops positioned above. Bids back at USD1.4570 with stops positioned below. Euro last at USD1.4590.

USDJPY holds near JPY91.00 area as it maintains its rebound level after seeing European hour’s lows at JPY90.69 after a swath of stops were flushed on the break of JPY91.00. Rebound got an assist from vigorous dollar buying out of Tokyo, traders say, adding Japanese retail accounts to the earlier talk of semi-official buys off the low. Bids expected in the JPY90.75/80 area, further down to JPY90.60 with barrier strike noted at JPY90.50 and JPY90.25, stops positioned below each.

Currency watchers believe that the yen’s recent strength is less a product of fundamental developments than of factors like repatriation flows into Japan at the end of the fiscal half-year there, as well as due to persistent dollar weakness as a result of the ongoing portfolio asset shift.

In traders view, the USD is really working hard at bottoming; volatility has been high and official interest is actively buying. With sentiment and technical’s very oversold USD is primed for a strong rally; at least to correct the oversold condition. Look for profit-taking by the shorts to end the week, today’s US data may be the catalyst.

The U.S. Import Price Index increased 2.0% in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Data was above market consensus of 1.0% and the previous report in July of -0.7%

The increment in price was driven primarily by a 9.8% advance in fuel prices. Excluding fuel, prices for imports increased 0.4 % in August following a 0.2% decline the previous month.

Related Stories

“U.S. import prices spiked 2 percent in August as the cost of oil rose, the Labor Department said on Friday,” Reuters reported.

“The increase, twice what analysts polled by Reuters had expected, was the fifth rise in the last six months. It followed a July drop of 0.7 percent.”

Full Story – Via Reuters

Finding yourself all at sea in an ocean of losses can happen all too quickly.

A new trader friend, a successful businessman, wisely opened his first live Forex account with $500. He had spent 6 months researching the market, and trialling different strategies at length on demo until finding a method that he believed consistently profitable. Within a month of going live, he had converted his $500 into $2,200. This was quite an achievement, especially for a first “outing”.

A few weeks later, I ran into him again. Things were not going so well. His early success had given him a false sense of confidence. Believing he had the formula right, he started to take on greater levels of risk (larger position sizes) and in more volatile currencies (Yen pairs). When the losses began to kick in, he attempted to cover the losses as many new traders do, by increasing his position sizes further. He related that because it was just a mini-account, he found it difficult to treat it in the same way as he would a larger account, he felt more comfortable taking larger levels of risk because the actual money involved was not huge. It was unfortunately, just a few short weeks before his fantastic start had come completely undone. Blown account. Back to square one.

Being able to treat a mini account with the same respect and discipline you would a larger account is a necessary bridge to success.

Account Drawdown

The issue with drawdown is the compounding factor – and the subsequent level of profit the trader needs to generate in order to recoup the loss. This table illustrates why keeping drawdown as low as possible is so important.

As shown on the chart, the drawdown problem compounds at a fierce, almost suffocating rate. The profit percentage required to recoup losses grows exponentially with each losing trade. When the account is deep in the red, recovery becomes extremely difficult. It is not however, mission impossible (although it may certainly look that way). It will take a much longer period of time (patience) and a very consistent string of positive trades to recover the losses.

The “Usual” Quick Fix.

Once a trader begins to take losses, the first response is very often an attempt to fix the drawdown problem by taking higher levels of risk.

Let’s think for a moment about what this approach does. Backing our own judgement, we’ve had a few, usually quite a collection, of losing trades. So then, to fix the problem, backing our own (already proven dubious) judgement again, except this time, increasing (sometimes doubling) the stakes in order to fix the problem, we launch the next trade (this is usually where prayer comes in).

The “increase the stakes” approach to addressing drawdown is not trading, it’s gambling.

The Other Quick Fix.

Another way that traders often seek to address drawdown is by re-funding the account with much higher amounts. Red numbers suddenly look much less red with a nice big green injection of fresh capital Sounds good, except, there’s a minor technical hitch. The skill needed to get it right this time (instead of wrong) has not yet been proven. Until it is proven – the trader’s ability to put one positive trade on the board after another, the outcome to re-funding much higher amounts will very likely be exactly the same, more and much greater losses. This is especially so if the “raise the stakes” gambling ethos is still at work in the trader’s mind.

The Right Fix.

The objective with trading is not to make a truckload of money in a hurry. The objective is to put consistent positive runs on the board (regardless of size). Putting one foot in front of the other, and repeating the process so that your account continues moving forward, one step at a time, not back. Developing this skill needs to become the #1 focus of each and every trade, because it is this same skill that will both recover drawdown losses and put the trader on the road to long term success.

Re-funding a mini account with further small amounts may be a necessary and valid response (there is a limit to how low an account can go before it is not worth your while), just keep any re-funding amounts small not big. Once trading a mini account successfully, the mini can then become the seed capital for a larger account, or the trader can then add fresh larger capital amounts (because the proven track record required for success has already been laid down, the hard evidence of this being the profitable mini account).

Red numbers remind us of our failure. The emotional response to it is an urge to obliterate the evidence, to replace the confrontational nature of it with something more positive. Resist the temptation to take the easy way out. Use the red numbers and the urge it generates to motivate and train yourself in the skills you will need for the long haul. Learn to swim through the ocean to dry land, one stroke at a time.

Recovering losses occurs in exactly the same way it happened, but in reverse; it also happens in exactly the same way that your account will grow and remain solid into the future – one successful (disciplined) trade at a time.

Becoming profitable in Forex is a process – like any other profession, it requires competency training.

The process of training the mind and acquiring the necessary TA and market skill to obtain competence and trade successfully takes time. Psychology’s competence matrix (often used in both education and change management disciplines) has much application to trading. This article looks at how the sequence applies to the process of acquiring trading competence, trading profitability and account balances during each phase. It also provides an approximate time frame for each stage.

Stage 1. Unconscious Incompetence – Losing Money – Minor Red Account

In the unconscious incompetence phase, we don’t know yet what it is that we don’t know (aka ignorance is bliss.)

Sitting in the Forex saddle for the first time is exciting, but it’s also precarious. Some traders manage to make good progress on the first live debut, but eventually the knowledge vacuum and pressure of live trading takes over causing higher levels of risk-taking, compounding the losses problem. At this stage the trader may also be embracing unrealistic grandiose expectations or have an exaggerated self-assessment of their trading prowess, the type of projections that are not anchored in realities.

This is called the unconscious incompetence stage. The trader “thinks” they have the required knowledge and strategy to make Forex work for them (from demo trading) but don’t yet know what it is that they don’t know – about the market and about themselves as traders. Market has a way of letting the trader know what the knowledge gaps are, fast.

Approx. Time Frame: 0-3 months.

Stage 2. Conscious Incompetence – Still Losing Money – Deeper Red Account

In the conscious incompetence phase, the trader has arrived at the point of recognizing the knowledge gaps – we know for certain now that we don’t know enough.

In this phase, the trader sees what they are doing wrong and what the knowledge gaps are, but has trouble fixing the problems. The account at this stage keeps getting redder as losses accumulate. This evidence is highly confronting, things are not going to plan.

This is the stage where the trader needs to make a conscious choice to begin seriously working on themselves and their trading system. It’s also the point where many new traders quit. The trader becomes fully and acutely aware of the many nuances of the market. The TA that looked so reliable in demo is failing far too often in the heated environment of live trading. Acquiring experiential knowledge of precisely how this market works; what can go wrong; how the trader’s judgement can be clouded; trading discipline; locating a TA system and trading routine that delivers the goods – these themes become the primary challenge. The trader has an important choice to make – meet the challenge and get across the issues, or quit.

Approx. Time Frame: 3 – 6 months.

Stage 3. Conscious Competence – Breaking Even – Account Holding Steady

The conscious competence stage arrives when the trader has begun addressing trading problems and started refining their trading system and personal discipline to a greater level of precision. Respect for risk is at a peak (thanks to losses and red numbers up to this point.) The trader takes great care in opening a new position, doing everything necessary to maximize the chances of success and reduce the risk of loss. At this stage, the trader is reluctant to let profits run, preferring to take profit, while confidence and knowledge builds.

Conscious competence is arriving – we now know with increasing certainty that we know how to do this – trading is starting to look very do-able, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The trader is getting it right with increasing frequency. Confidence is building. The trader’s brain is in the process of being programmed to trade successfully. The trader is working hard, thinking carefully and fully, applying rigorous care to every trade. This is the most lengthy, time intensive and effort intensive phase of the competence matrix.

The trader is no longer losing money, but also not making much money either. The breaking-even phase is nevertheless a huge achievement, and the essential precursor to the final stage.

Approx. Time Frame: 6 months to 3+ years.

Stage 4. Unconscious Competence – Making Money – Green Account

The final stage of the competence matrix is when the account begins to put consistent positive runs on the board. The trader begins to make money regularly. Trading profitability has shifted from having to think / work hard at it, to a stage of being clinical and instinctive. The red account begins to claw back drawdown and then turn green. When losses have been fully recouped, this is when the trader knows they have graduated and are ready to trade in a professional sense.

In this phase, trading successfully and profitability has become a much more automatic process – one that continues to evolve with an increasingly higher success rate. The trader recognizes the entry set-ups automatically, has the detailed knowledge, skills, discipline and market experience to make the right decisions at the right time. Trading begins to seriously work for them.

Trading profitably has become second nature. The trader’s brain has been successfully programmed to trade with accuracy and precision. The trader has acquired a level of instinctive professional competence.

Approx. Time Frame: 12 months – 5+ years.

Summary
Building up the credit balance in the trader’s personal knowledge bank is an essential precursor to building healthy trading accounts. Programming the mind to trade is part of the process of acquiring competency.

Experienced traders who have come through the school of hard knocks process often lament “if only I had known in the beginning what I know now, and still had the same funds available, how different things might now be.” Hindsight is a wonderful teacher. Make some allowances for the competency learning curve.

While there is no hard and fast rule about the time sequence for each phase of acquiring trading competence (since this is entirely dependent upon the trader’s personal capabilities), there is nevertheless, a distinct process that every trader goes through. Plotting where you are in the competence matrix at this present moment in time can provide a realistic indication of what is left to accomplish and how long it may take.

The Japanese Yen remains volatile and heading lower on overall Dollar weakness. There is a tug o’ war between risk appetite and risk aversion keeping trading in most Yen pairs mixed. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 70.2 in Mid September from 65.7 in August. Data was above market consensus as analysts estimated a reading of 67.0. Stocks were briefly in positive territory but reversed gains quickly. Wall Street performance will continue to be key for the pair.

Looking at the 4hour chart, USD/JPY broke below the 91.00 area and appears to be targeting the next support at 89.98. The outlook at the moment remains bearish and trader talk intensifies for calls to reach the 87.15 area in coming weeks, last years low.

If these level is reached, a long entry can be taken at 0.8730 with a first target at 88.72. A strong Yen is undesirable for the Japanese economy and we would expect government officials to start jawboning the levels.

The bias is bearish and preferred strategy is to sell on rallies. However, a neutral stance should be taken near this area as strong support levels are being reached and risks of verbal intervention intensify. The next level of support is 89.98, followed by 88.72 and 88.03.

Resistance is now seen at 90.91, followed by 91.81 and 93.34.

Trading levels in play:

(Swing Trade) Limit Buy @ 87.30 Targets: T1 100.00 – T2 94.40 Risk: 86.80
** After 30 pips profit move stop to entry, take profit at will. Trade is canceled if it rebounds near entry and moves higher by 20 pips. Will follow up with comments if outlook changes.

What the world took away from Chinese exporters, the government appears to have been successful in replacing. News today that the domestic mainland economy is firing ahead on all cylinders has restored fortunes to the prospects of the entire Asian region, in turn sending the dollar lower as investors once again eye yields and equity market returns greater than the cost of borrowing through an extremely inexpensive greenback. The U.S. unit reached a new low for the year at $1.4635 per euro while the fortunes of the yen took a boost as Japanese corporations began the quarterly process of repatriating foreign currency earnings back to head office.

Click on link for updated table throughout the day at http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/general/education/FX-View.php?ib_entity=llc

It was only yesterday that Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao expressed concern that it was hardly the right time to retract the government’s stimulus measures and he refused to curb his stimulative path. Out of Beijing today come fresh stats that have set the bulls running once again in the Asian region in hopes that Chinese good fortune will spill over into greater demand for raw materials as consumer demand is revived.

Industrial production was 12.3% higher in August than a year ago, exceeding forecasts. The equivalent of $60 billion in new loans were granted, which compares to an equivalent $52 billion in July. Retail sales were also higher by 15.3% in August compared to the same time in 2008. The news buoyed regional sentiment and the 2.2% gain for the Shanghai composite index for Chinese stocks brushed aside fears of asset-price inflation. But the fact that exports declined at a year-over-year pace of 23.4% emphasized the Chinese predicament. The rally in global stocks tells us that investors are growing less concerned that the bridge between Chinese stimulus measures and the ultimate replacement by global demand will finally be built.

The dollar slumped once again and against the Japanese yen today only buys ¥90.65from Thursday’s ¥91.71. The yen strengthened against the euro to ¥132.29 from ¥133.78 while against a strong British pound the yen rose to ¥151.29 from ¥152.84.

The dollar’s fortunes were temporarily reversed after a stronger reading of confidence from the preliminary Michigan sentiment index coming in at a strong 70.2 and well above the 67.5 consensus. However, the euro is now once again firming as dollar appetite fades. What is amazing, however, is the dollar’s weakness in the context of the very strong appetite at the U.S. bond and note auctions. Weekly auctions that finished Thursday sapped a further $70 billion from investors and bid-to-cover ratios indicate extremely healthy demand as the dollar declines. Where are all the dollars coming from?

U.K. producer prices rose to help support the view that the Bank of England and the British treasury have been successful in fighting the recession. Prices for goods leaving the factory gate rose at a 0.2% pace in August making that a sixth consecutive monthly increase. The pound rallied against the dollar to $1.6705 while it added to 87.48 pence per euro.

The Australian dollar reversed early morning losses to stand at 86.52 and so close to yesterday’s 52-week peak. The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen at 93.10 as some analysts expect to see parity later this year as the groundswell of recovery takes place.

The Aussie recovered all of its losses from the weaker than expected jobs report as underlining economic indicators remain well positioned. The currency has also been buoyed by a string of better than expected Chinese data which showed clear signals of a global economic recovery.

In addition, China has reiterated it will “absolutely” maintain its stimulative fiscal and monetary policies until a stable economic recovery is achieved. This should add confidence to Aussie investors who feared that global stimulus would start to get withdrawn. Ahead we could experience a possible retracement as investors lock in some profits before adding at lower levels to their longer term positions.

Looking at the 4hour chart, AUD/USD reached an intraday high at 0.8656 where it has rebounded for the a fifth straight time and unable to surpass.A break above this level would open subsequent levels at 0.8691, 0.8731 and 0.8804.

The bias is neutral in the near term but the longer term outlook continues to point for higher prices. At these levels a buying on dips strategy is preferred. Strong support levels to watch lie at 0.8571/40, 0.8500, and 0.8460.

Trading levels in play:

Limit Buy @ 0.8548 Targets: T1 0.8570 – T2 0.8700 Risk: 0.8490
* Good Till NY Close After 15 pips profit move stop to entry, take profit at will. Trade is canceled if it rebounds near entry and moves higher by 20 pips. Will follow up with comments if outlook changes.

Limit Buy @ 0.8460 Targets: T1 0.8498 – T2 0.8700 Risk: 0.8410
* After 15 pips profit move stop to entry, take profit at will. Trade is canceled if it rebounds near entry and moves higher by 20 pips. Will follow up with comments if outlook changes.

Having a good trading system means more money being generated. Traders have found it very difficult to maintain a particular trading system due to the fact that there are several factors that cause the system to become obsolete and this is one of the main reasons that new strategies have to be developed each and every time.

Having a good trading strategy does not mean that you should be over confident when trading. Basing your trading system with related strategies such as trading news, Fibonacci analysis, determining your stop loss and risk management will help your trading system to be solid.

In this section we will look at one of the advanced trading strategy that is very profitable. As the name says Early Bird Breakout System means that you should do your trade very early morning so as to observe a significant breakout. This advanced system requires traders to commence their trades as early as possible e.g. 5:00 am (EST).

The Early Bird Breakout System is a morning strategy which bases on time factor, two currency pairs and does not make use of indicators. The currencies we would prefer you make use of with this system is the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD.
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On Wednesday the US dollar strengthened against its major counterparts as a fall in European stocks boosted demand for the relative safety of the U.S. currency.

European shares fell in early trade today, slipping back from their highest close in nearly 11 months, tracking a decline in Asia and as metals prices weighed on mining stocks.

Against the European currency, the US dollar edged higher during early deals on Wednesday. At 3:30 am ET, the dollar reached a high of 1.4469 against the euro, compared to 1.4480 hit late New York Tuesday. The next upside target level for the dollar is seen around 1.437.

The US currency that closed Tuesday's North American session at 1.6489 against the British pound slipped to 1.6566 at 2:05 am ET Wednesday. Thereafter, the dollar reversed its direction and is currently trading at 1.6462 versus the pound with 1.616 seen as the next target level.
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During Wednesday deals the Japanese yen recovered from an early Asian session's 12-day low against euro and Swiss franc. Meantime, the yen weakened versus the US dollar and the British pound.

Against the US dollar, the Japanese yen edged down during early Asian deals on Wednesday. At 9:25 pm ET, the yen touched a low of 92.45 against the dollar, compared to 92.33 hit late New York Tuesday. The next downside target level for the yen is seen around 94.4.

The Japanese unit that closed Tuesday's North American session at 133.68 against the European currency slipped to a 12-day low of 134.18 during today's early Asian deals. Thereafter, the yen reversed its direction and is currently trading at 133.79 with 132.5 seen as the next target level.
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Sales volumes, which strip out price movements, rose 0.4 percent in the April to June period over the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted, with core, ex-auto, sales up 0.2 percent, official data showed on Friday. A Reuters poll forecast no change in sales volumes. The data was seen pointing to the economy starting to emerge from recession that started early last year, but not requiring any change to the central bank's low rate policy. 'It's the sort of thing that leaves the Reserve Bank (of NZ) where it is, reducing the odds of a rate cut,' said Bank of NZ senior economist Craig Ebert.

Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in July, the first decline in three months, as concern over jobs and stagnant incomes caused consumers to cut back on other items after taking advantage of the cash-for-clunkers program. The 0.1 percent decrease followed a revised 0.8 percent gain in June that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles fell 0.6 percent, also more than anticipated.

Featured Advertiser (ForexDistrict) - Seasonally adjusted initial claims were 558,000 in the week ending August 8, recording an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 554,000, a report by the U.S. Department of Labor showed today. The four-week moving average, a better gauge of initial claims, estimated an increase of 8,500 to 565,000. Initial claims were lower than expectations for the second week of August as analysts had expected the number around the 548,000 range. A key component of the report edged lower, albeit remaining at record highs. During the week ending August 1 a decrease of 141,000 was reported with the figure falling near the 6.0 million mark at 6,202,000. The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending August 1 were in Alabama, Washington, Nebraska, Kentucky, and Delaware, while the largest decreases were in California, Michigan, Tennessee, Florida, and Georgia. By Manuel F. Ramirez. Edited by Juan P. Bejarano Related Stories:

Euro zone gross domestic product contracted only 0.1 percent in April-June against the first three months of the of 2009, when the quarterly fall was 2.5 percent, estimates from the European Union's statistics office Eurostat showed [ID:nLD440556]. The euro EUR rose as high as $1.4281 according to electronic trading platform EBS, its strongest since last Friday. The pair traded around $1.4255 before the announcement.

German gross domestic product rose by 0.3 percent in the second quarter, bringing an end to the country's deepest recession since World War Two and boosting hopes of recovery in the broader euro zone. French GDP also grew by 0.3 percent in the second quarter. The consensus in a Reuters poll of economists had predicted a 0.3 percent quarterly contraction in both countries. "The data is very surprising. After four negative quarters France is finally coming out of the red," French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde told RTL radio. Germany suffered a calamitous 3.5 percent contraction in the first quarter of this year to cap four quarters of decline while the French economy shrank by 1.3 percent.

The euro rose against the yen and the dollar in Asia Thursday as firm Asian share markets spurred demand for the riskier euro.
Overnight comments by the Federal Reserve also led to a more optimistic economic outlook among traders, nudging them to take more risks and buy the single currency, dealers said. The euro's near-term direction is slightly upward, they added.
Regional share markets were broadly higher. As of 0530 GMT Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average index was up 1.0%, while stock markets in South Korea, India and Australia also gained.
Some Japanese banks sold the dollar for the yen due to redemptions of dollar-denominated bonds, traders said.
The Euro tested USD1.4100 before bouncing hard on USD weakness in the US session, shrugging off the FOMC report to finish above USD1.4200. June Industrial Production fell -0.6% vs. 0.3% forecast. EURJPY had a wild day trading in a 3 yen range on the change in risk appetite. EURGBP remained supported on GBP weakness.
British pound propped up by a weaker US dollar despite bearish sentiment in their country. Bank of England said inflation will stay below its 2 percent target as its economy undergoes a "slow and protracted" recovery. UK Central bank Governor Mervyn King said it is "more likely than not" that inflation will slow below 1 percent this year and unemployment reached a 14-year high. Thus, UK interest rates are expected to remain on hold for a while.
The Australian dollar reversed course Thursday, rallying as risk appetite regained lost ground while long-dated bond futures were sold. Spurring the risk-buying mood in Asia was a relatively optimistic outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which didn't extend it's bond buying program and said the economy's contraction is slowing.
Market expectation
The euro is marginally higher against the dollar, yen and UK pound as short-term Asian investors buy on higher risk tolerance.
EURUSD reported offers placed between USD1.4265/70 able to contain the early GDP react driven rally, with underlying tone remaining firm. Rate currently trades around USD1.4257 after touching fresh intraday highs at USD1.4268 (50% USD1.4448/1.4086). Above USD1.4270 may open a move on toward USD1.4280/85.
For Pound offers seen placed above USD1.6585 through to USD1.6600, a break to open a move on toward USD1.6615/20 ahead of stronger level at USD1.6650. Support now seen placed at USD1.6550, a break below USD1.6540 to open a deeper move back toward USD1.6510/00.
Attention now turns to U.S. retail sales data at 1230 GMT and second-quarter earnings from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. later in the day to gauge whether consumption is recovering in the U.S.
The euro could rise toward JPY138.00 and USD1.4300, if those figures come in better than expected, adding to the positive outlook for the U.S. economy, dealers said.
European stock markets are expected to open higher Thursday, as investors react with optimism to the latest comments from the Federal Reserve about the strength of the U.S. economy, the world's largest.

The euro also advanced against 13 of the 16 major currencies before a U.S. report that may show retail sales gained for a third month, prompting investors to seek higher- yielding assets. South Korea’s won led Asian currencies higher after the Federal Reserve acknowledged that the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s may be ending, helping shore up demand for riskier assets. “I expect growth in the euro-zone economy will be very high” later this year and that should benefit the euro, said Adam Carr, a senior economist at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney. “I will be surprised if we didn’t see something positive in the second half of this year.” The euro strengthened to $1.4224 as of 11:06 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4188 yesterday in New York. The 16-nation currency rose to 136.47 yen from 136.32 yen. The yen was at 95.96 per dollar from 96.06. The won rose 0.8 percent to 1,236.60 per dollar.

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The foreign exchange offered for sale under the Retail Dutch Auction System (RDAS) amounted to $300.00 million, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disclosed over the weekend.
The amount showed an increase of 25 per cent over the level in the preceding week.
Making this known through its weekly bulletin on the foreign exchange market for the week ended January 30, 2009, the apex bank further said "aggregate demand for foreign exchange by authorised dealers rose to US$1,128.39 million, indicating an increase of 172.1 per cent when compared with the level recorded in the week-ended January 23, 2009."
Consequently, it continued, the actual amount of foreign exchange sold by the Central Bank increased from US$205.08 million or 143.7 per cent above the level in the preceding week to US$499.72 million during the week under review.
On the level of participation, it noted that the average number of participating banks increased from 12 to 23. Similarly, the average number of successful banks increased to 21 from 11.
At N145.75 per US dollar, the Bank observed, the average exchange rate of the naira depreciated by 0.2 percent below the level in the preceding week. Similarly, at the Bureau-De-Change (BDC) segment of the market, the naira traded at an average exchange rate of N150.00 per US dollar, showing a depreciation of 1.6 per cent below the level in the previous week.
Consequently, the premium between the official and BDC rates widened from 1.9 per cent in the week-ended January 23, 2009 to 2.9 per cent during the week.
Meanwhile, the apex Bank has requested banks to annualize all their charges, commissions and fees and add them to their base lending rates to arrive at their all-inclusive average lending rates which should be submitted for publication.
Making this known through a circular BSD/DIR/GEN/CIR/02/019 of January 29, 2009, the acting Director of Banking Supervision, Mr. Dan Eke, said "this is to remind all Deposit Money Banks that as agreed at the last Governor's breakfast meeting with Chief Executive Officers of banks, and with effect from January, 2009 the CBN-published monthly deposit and interest rates and charges, will be inclusive of all charges, commissions and fees."
Also, the CBN shall, with effect from January 2009, include the following footnote to the monthly publication of banks' deposit and interest rates and charges. "The Central Bank of Nigeria publishes the average deposit and lending rates paid or charged by deposit money banks in Nigeria for the interest of the general public in order to promote transparency. The lending rates which include all charges, fees and commissions and the deposit rates represent the true rates at which the banks do business.
Failure to comply with the requirements of the circular, according to the apex bank, shall be met by appropriate sanctions.
In another development, the Bank would be holding a seminar on the challenges of ensuring appropriate inflation rate, exchange rate and interest rate regimes in Nigeria.
An invitation letter sent to the media yesterday, the Governor, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, stated "against the backdrop of recent developments in the Nigerian economy fuelled by the global crisis with its attendant effect on the crude oil prices in the international market, and the implication for interest rate, exchange rate and inflation, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is organizing a one-day seminar on the theme: "The Challenges of Ensuring Appropriate Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Regimes in Nigeria".
The seminar which is scheduled for next Thursday would hold at the Main Auditorium, CBN Head Office, Central Business District, Abuja.

Euro down, yen buoyed as investors take shelter
* Aussie falls before expected hefty rate cut by RBA
* Kiwi hits 8-year low on yen after job market data
By Kaori Kaneko
TOKYO, Feb 2 (Reuters) - The euro fell to its weakest in two months against the dollar on Monday while the yen gained across the board as investors opted for less risky assets on concerns about the deepening global recession.
Worsening labour market data and receding inflation late last week made some in the market reassess the outlook for interest rate cuts in the euro zone, although analysts said the European Central Bank was unlikely to lower rates when it meets this week.
Worries about the faltering global economy also weighed on higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, which hit its lowest in eight years against the yen as investors remained risk averse.
"Changing rate expectations is one factor behind the euro's weakness," said Tomoko Fujii, head of Japan economics and strategy at Bank of America